Coming: A New Breed of Aviation Accident

August 15, 2012

The last US aviation accident involving a large jetliner occurred in November 2001. When an American Airlines A300 crashed shortly after takeoff from New York’s Kennedy Airport in November 2001, 265 people died. (This state-of-the-art aircraft was equipped with a fly-by-wire system that was designed to prevent the pilots from making any control inputs that would jeopardize the safety of the flight. The pilot managed to over-modulate rudder inputs and snap off the entire vertical stabilizer. But that’s another story).

So we’ve gone over a decade without a fatal accident involving a US heavy transport aircraft. That’s about to change.

A frightening array of organizations (DHS, FBI, ATF, DEA, Fedex, military, local cops, real estate developers, news media, paparazzi, oil and mineral explorers, pizza shops [seriously], etc.) are pressing the federal government to open US skies to drones. Drones are unmanned aircraft weighing anywhere from a few ounces to a few tons that can linger for hours or days watching everything that’s happening beneath them. Some drones are robots flying programmed routes; others are operated by ‘pilots’ on the ground who may be thousands of miles from the drone(s) they are controlling.

Never mind the risks drones pose to your privacy. Your Fourth Amendment rights pretty much died in 2001 when President Bush signed the Patriot Act. President Obama renewed and ‘strengthened’ the Patriot Act in 2011.

Now, in their never-ending quest to make America safe for democracy, the president and Congress have directed the Federal Aviation Administration [FAA] to integrate drones into US airspace by September of 2015. Acting FAA Administrator Michael Huerta recently told an industry group (read: guys who sell drones) that he is “very, very optimistic we will get there.” No doubt, Mr. Huerta has been smoking some of the weed for which those drones will be searching.

There are around 40,000 commercial flights daily in the US plus tens of thousands of private (general aviation) and military flights. To its credit, the FAA has done a good job of keeping these planes from flying into each other. A corps of air traffic controllers, on-board collision avoidance technology, ground-based radars, radios, and heavy information processing generally work well.

But underlying all of our sophisticated air traffic control technology is the principle of ‘see and avoid.’ Pilots and the FAA rely on this principle as the final safeguard against disasters in the sky. Sometimes all that technology just doesn’t work. Every day brings multiple incidents in which pilots must take action to avoid collisions in the sky. Pilots joke that they have strong motivation to keep their heads on a swivel because, in the event of a screw-up, they will be “the first to arrive at the scene of the accident.”

What about drones? No pilot; nobody looking out the window; nobody on board with a strong survival instinct. Oh, sure, drones can be equipped with cameras, radars, GPS, transponders—all sorts of technological goodies that will reduce the chances of a collision. But the chances for collision will still be there. There will be no one in the cockpit to react quickly and properly to that little black dot in the sky that is looming larger every second.

The FAA estimates there will 30,000 drones loitering in the skies of America by 2020. It is only a matter of time before one of them scatters bodies, luggage, and iPhones all over downtown Flat Rock.


“When You’re Having More Than One”

May 21, 2012

Twenty percent of American drinkers consume 80 percent of the alcohol.
Washington Post

Perhaps the most cynical subterfuge in American advertising is the alcohol industry’s indifferent campaign to get us to “drink responsibly.” Intuitively, you know they’re lying but you need to do the math to see how important it is to brewers and distillers that at least some of us drink irresponsibly.

If there are 100 bottles of beer on the wall and 100 people in the room, the numbers tell us that 20 people will consume 4 bottles each (80 bottles) and 80 people will share the remaining 20 bottles, or 1/4 bottle each. This means that the average alcohol abuser (a member of the Group of Twenty) consumes sixteen times as much alcohol as a non-abuser.

Now, imagine yourself sitting in a pitch meeting at Sterling Cooper Draper Pryce. Your job is to sell as much of your client’s product as possible. Who are the buyers? Well, you can try to recruit customers from among the non-abusers but that’s a hell of a lot of work for little return. If you’re smart, you go after the abusers, the alcoholics, because that’s where the money is.

How? By sending the alcoholic a subtle message that he’s earned the right to drink as much as he wants.

Consider the slogans (and the hidden message):

Head for the mountains. Go ahead, check out and get hammered. These people are assholes anyway.

For all you do, this Bud’s for you. Poor baby, you work your ass off at your job. You get home and your fucking wife starts in on you like you don’t already have enough troubles.

Where there’s life, there’s Bud. Iced tea and lemon bars? Jesus, this party sucks!

I’m only here for the beer. (This one is so cunningly complete as to defy elaboration).

It’s all about the beer. (ditto)

It’s what’s inside that truly counts.  The bitch just doesn’t understand me.

Would you say no to another? Does the Pope shit in the woods?

It doesn’t get any better than this! Does it?

Sooner or later you’ll get it. Someday all of you assholes will realize how right I am.

If I wanted water, I would have asked for water. Jesus Christ, what does a guy have to do to get a drink around here?

Smirnoff Ice. Intelligent Nightlife. I like to associate with a more erudite crowd. Godammit Bubba, you threw up on my shoes again!

Our Hand Has Never Lost Its Skill. And you should see what I can do with my other hand while I’m drinking this Schaefer.

Give him a right good Hemeling tonight. Hemeling, you bitch, not Heimlich!

Real men of genius. Just like those guys, I come up with my best ideas when I’m hammered.

The most interesting man in the world. We’re buddies. Grew up together. Taught him everything he knows.

It won’t slow you down.
Tastes great, less filling.
Everything you always wanted in a beer. And less.
Lose the carbs. Not the taste.
Beerspeak for “All the alcohol without the beer gut. Trust us.”


Ethanol Idiocy

May 19, 2012

“The grain it takes to fill an SUV tank with ethanol could feed a hungry person for a year.”
Market Watch

When I read the above, I was incredulous. What? You can feed a man for a year on the grain it takes to make 20 gallons of ethanol? Turns out it’s true. Do the math…

It takes a bushel of corn, the grain usually employed to make ethanol, to make 2.7 gallons of ethanol. A bushel of corn weighs 56 pounds, hence it takes about 416 pounds of corn to make 20 gallons of ethanol. Corn contains about 1755 nutritional calories (kcal) per pound, so 416 pounds of corn contain 730,000 calories. Divide 730,000 calories by 365 days and we find that the corn used to make one tank of ethanol would provide a man with about 2000 calories per day.

Granted, a steady diet of corn alone would not provide not be nutritionally complete. But, add a ration of Funions and Twinkies, and life could be pretty good. Or, maybe our hypothetical man could just drink the ethanol.

So, why have we built over 200 ethanol plants in the United States? Round up the usual suspects: politics and money. Ethanol is allegedly “green” so makes our politicians look like the’re doing something about energy independence and saving the planet at the same time. Farmers and agribusiness like it because it props up corn prices and profits.

Can we sustain this? Never. With the world’s growing population, we’ll eventually need the corn to feed people. Trading corn for oil is a much smarter plan.

But what would happen to all the ethanol plants? They’ll just go back to the government and ask for more subsidies so they can chase the next chimerical green energy scheme.

Termites are pretty good at converting cellulose, the stuff of tree branches and grass clippings, into sugar. How about giant termite farms, stretching to the horizon? Of course, substantial subsidies will be needed to find out that, oh well, it doesn’t work all that well either.

And, there’s the water. We live in a country where low-volume toilets are mandatory, even in regions that get 40 inches of rain a year. But it takes 22,000 gallons of water to make the corn to make 20 gallons of ethanol. (It’s your turn to do the math). Well, more actually, because additional water is used in ethanol production.

Only a politician could be oblivious to the contradictions.


Obama Should Pay Her the $800

May 5, 2012

Everyone knows about last month’s scandal at the Summit of the Americas in Cartagena, Colombia, when US Secret Service agents tried to stiff—er, cheat—a hooker.

The ensuing festouche dominated the headlines throughout the summit, diverting America’s attention from the top two items on the agenda: Cuba and drugs.

The rest of the Americas wanted to talk about recognizing Cuba (something the US should have done fifty years ago) and legalization of at least some drugs (also something the US should have done fifty years ago).

Three years ago the Latin American Commission on Drugs and Democracy published a report from ex-Presidents Fernando Henrique Cardoso of Brazil, Ernesto Zedillo of Mexico, and Cesar Gaviria of Colombia. They demanded decriminalization of marijuana and treating drug use as a public-health issue. Guatemalan President Gen. Perez Molina and Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos agreed, as did other Latin American leaders.

And, Latin America was united in wanting Cuba to participate. Cuba graciously declined, knowing that the US would boycott the summit. Next time, odds are the Cubans will be invited and the Americans will be told to go piss up a rope. The result will be to further isolate the US from virtually every country in the Western Hemisphere save, perhaps, Canada.

Our Panderer in Chief caught a lucky break as there was almost no press coverage of his bobbing, weaving, and back-peddling on the issues of drugs and Cuba. He should divert some of his “campaign funds” to the unlucky Secret Service agents whose careers are ended.

And, he should give the ho a stack.


Please Remove Your Clothes

May 3, 2012

First, there was Richard Reid, the “Shoe Bomber,” who attempted to blow up an American Airlines Paris/Miami flight with C4 explosives hidden in his shoes. The ever-vigilant TSA (Transportation Security Administration) responded with a “please remove your shoes” requirement. At the time, the prevailing joke was “it’s a good thing he didn’t put the bomb in his underwear.”

Enter Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the “Underwear Bomber,” who attempted exactly that on a Northwest Flight from Amsterdam to Detroit. Vowing never to be caught again with their pants down, TSA responded with X-ray-based devices (“Trust us, thousands of times less energy than a cell phone transmission.”). These X-ray devices usually can detect items hidden under clothing, but they are not powerful enough to see inside a body.

But now come ”body bombs,” explosives that are  inserted surgically inside the body and have no metal parts, thus avoiding detection by current screening devices. In 2009, Ibrahim al-Asiri is said to have surgically implanted a bomb inside the rectal cavity of his brother, who then attempted to assassinate the Saudi Arabian intelligence chief. The bomb exploded prematurely, killing only al-Asiri’s brother. (Or maybe the bomb didn’t explode prematurely. It was just a clever way of disposing of a shiftless relative).

TSA faces a dilemma. Even an all-too-tolerant American public is not going to put up with full-body medical-grade X-rays when they want to go visit Aunt Bernice. The only alternative is to have passengers strip so fun-loving TSA agents can look for sutures or fresh scars. Perhaps the TSA will put a nice spin on the strip-search booths by calling them “cabanas.”

Or, maybe finally the TSA will be forced to admit, “No, we really can’t protect you from a determined terrorist.”

And, “come to think of it, in the ten years we’ve been in business confiscating literally tons of nail files, knitting needles, and pocket knives we’ve never once, not once, actually foiled a terrorist attempt.”


We Must Look Like Idiots

April 6, 2012

According to the Wall Street Journal:

Tennessee Gov. Bill Haslam is likely in the coming days to sign into law a bill requiring that public schools allow science teachers to discuss purported weaknesses of theories such as evolution…

Louisiana and Mississippi have passed similar legislation in previous years, and state science standards in seven other states now allow teachers to question evolution…

To most of the world, we Americans must look like idiots.

News flash for you Christians. The science is in and evolution is a fact. Deal with it.

But the Bible says, “In the beginning God created the heavens and the earth, etc. etc.” It must be so.

And the Bible also says “If someone has a stubborn and rebellious son who does not obey his father and mother and will not listen to them when they discipline him…then all the men of his town are to stone him to death.” This, too, must be so.

Selective reading of the Bible leads Christians to make all sorts of awkward choices. If the Bible is the Word of God why are Christians ready to believe that He created the heavens and the earth but they are not willing to murder their unruly children?

The King James version of the Bible is one of the world’s great pieces of literature. It certainly is the greatest piece of literature ever created by a committee. But, like Beowulf and The Vision of Piers Plowman, it is a myth filled with, well, rumors, lies, innuendo, fear, uncertainty, and despair.


Where Are the Smokers When We Really Need Them?

March 19, 2012

I am often amused by the consequences of the Law of Unintended Consequences:

The law of unintended consequences, often cited but rarely defined, is that actions of people—and especially of government—always have effects that are unanticipated or unintended.
The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics 

Recently Newsweek ran a story titled Is Boeing’s 737 an Airplane Prone to Problems? In brief, Newsweek cites several cases in which the outer skin of a Boeing 737 separated during flight. Rapid decompression of the cabin ensued, creating an in-flight emergency. In the 1988 case of an Aloha Airlines flight a large section of the forward upper fuselage blew completely off the aircraft, falling into the ocean along with a flight attendant. Seven passengers were seriously injured, but the pilots managed to land what was left of the aircraft.

Image

In April 2011, a 5 foot by 9 inch section of the fuselage of a Southwest Airlines 737 peeled off over California. The plane landed safely with no serious injuries to passengers or crew.

In both cases the sudden decompressions were brought on by the failure of lap joints where skin sections are joined to each other, and to the airframe, by rivets and some glue. Every time a transport aircraft takes to the air, it is pressurized so that the passengers don’t suffocate. At 35,000 feet in an unpressurized airplane, passengers would be unconscious in half a minute and dead in about 10, so pressurizing is generally considered good for business.

But, over time, pressurizing takes its toll on aircraft since the skin stretches and contracts with each pressurization and depressurization. Aircraft have to be inspected regularly to ensure that these pressurization cycles have not elongated the rivet holes attaching the skin. Once elongated, these holes are weakened, creating the possibility of a decompression.

So how do the smokers figure in to all of this? Prior to April 1998, when smoking was banned on all US flights, aircraft inspectors would just look for skin joint rivets that had nicotine stains around them, a sure sign the joint was leaking and in need of repair.


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