Two ranchers riding in a pickup pass a neighbor’s spread. “Jesus,” one of them says, “ol’ Seth’s got himself a lot of beeves out there this year.”
“’Bout 418, I reckon,” says the other.
“Now how in the hell did you count them critters that fast?”
“Easy enough,” says the other. “I just added up the number of legs and then divided by four.”
Probably the most underrated political controversy of 2010 is yet to come: the decennial census required by the Constitution. Everybody, and I mean everybody, eventually will claim their constituency, be it a city or state, ethnic minority or majority, religious group, occupational group or whatever, is underrepresented by the census data. Why? Because the census is about votes and money.
The original reason for the census was to determine how the votes were distributed among the states in the US House of Representatives. Votes mean power in congress so the individual states want to show the largest possible (or even impossible) numbers to ensure as many representatives as they can get. Here’s a list of those likely to gain, or lose, representatives in the 435-member House:
Arizona +2
Florida +1
Georgia +1 Illinois -1
Iowa -1
Louisiana -1
Massachusetts -1
Michigan -1
Minnesota -1
Nevada +1
New Jersey -1
New York -1
Ohio -2
Pennsylvania -1
South Carolina +1
Texas +3
Utah +1
Washington +1
And don’t forget, these same numbers impact the votes in the Electoral College. Our president and Vice President are chosen, not by the total popular vote of the nation, but, in most states, by a winner-take-all bloc of votes cast for the winning candidate from the state. Think about the politics of the above states and it will occur to you that the Republicans likely will benefit from the 2010 census.
For this reason, and many others, advocacy groups of every stripe already are putting out propaganda about bias and under counting in the census. A review of news stories over the past 30 days reveals over 400 claims, even before the census has started, of under counts that will cheat these or those people out of votes or money or both. Keep in mind that about $400 billion of the federal budget is distributed to states, counties, and municipalities based on census data.
Some examples:
College students. Under census rules, people are considered residents of the place where they live and sleep most of the time. Many college students are away from their “homes” for 9 months out of the year and will be on April 1, 2010 which is the official counting day (though the census actually takes months). Since one “head” is worth about $3500 a year in federal benefits, localities are eager to claim college students as “residents.”
The National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials claims Latinos will be under counted by at least a million. The National Coalition of Latino Clergy and Christian Leaders agrees. Others say, that because of the high number of illegal Latinos in the US and their general distrust of government, the Latino under count will run into the millions. For the record, citizenship is NOT a question asked by the census.
The Florida Legislative Black Caucus says blacks will be under counted in that state.
Marc Morial, president of the National Urban League, and the Revs. Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson, claim blacks are always under counted everywhere.
This same bunch also are claiming that prisoners are being counted as residents of the town where the prison is located rather than their “hometowns” thus depriving their home neighborhoods of federal money.
The Montana Department of Commerce’s Census and Economic Information Center says the last census under counted the state’s population by over 14,000 people.
The Arab American Action Network complains that there isn’t a race category for Arabs on the census form. Opponents claim that ‘Arab’ is not a race.
The Korea Central Daily News claims Koreans will be under counted because many of them are in the country illegally and are afraid even to talk to a census taker.
According to Pinoy, Filipinos will be under counted because they fear they will be called for jury duty or other civic responsibilities.
The India Tribune claims Indians will avoid the census and be under counted because many are illegals.
Extra claims teenagers and young adults will be under counted because they are afraid to give any information to the government. (These kids are smarter than I thought).
The Polish Daily News claims Poles will be under counted because many do not read English and will not realize the importance of the census forms when they arrive in the mail.
Utah claims its citizens are under counted because many are Mormons who are out of the country on church missions.
American Indians are complaining that they are under counted for a variety of reasons. I suspect it has something to do with their receiving more federal money per capita than virtually any other identifiable group.
Cities with large homeless populations fear an under count for obvious reasons.
A Pew Research Center report says that as many as 1 in 5 Americans will not respond to the census for a variety of reasons, most having to do with distrust of what the government might do with the data. (Although raw census data are supposed to be kept secret for 72 years, recent abuses of private data by other federal agencies give people no particular reason to trust the Census Bureau).
The list goes on and on. You can bet that the census data will be argued and challenged in court for years to come particularly by the states that are likely to lose representatives and electoral votes: Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Too close to call right now is the possibility that Texas may gain 4 seats, instead of 3, and California may lose a seat instead of remaining even.
Looks like another banner year for lawyers.
(Note: The publications cited above are all US domestic publications, most of which represent ethnic constituencies).
This entry was posted on Thursday, January 21st, 2010 at 5:32 PM and is filed under Commentary. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Counting Cows
Probably the most underrated political controversy of 2010 is yet to come: the decennial census required by the Constitution. Everybody, and I mean everybody, eventually will claim their constituency, be it a city or state, ethnic minority or majority, religious group, occupational group or whatever, is underrepresented by the census data. Why? Because the census is about votes and money.
The original reason for the census was to determine how the votes were distributed among the states in the US House of Representatives. Votes mean power in congress so the individual states want to show the largest possible (or even impossible) numbers to ensure as many representatives as they can get. Here’s a list of those likely to gain, or lose, representatives in the 435-member House:
Arizona +2
Illinois -1
Florida +1
Georgia +1
Iowa -1
Louisiana -1
Massachusetts -1
Michigan -1
Minnesota -1
Nevada +1
New Jersey -1
New York -1
Ohio -2
Pennsylvania -1
South Carolina +1
Texas +3
Utah +1
Washington +1
And don’t forget, these same numbers impact the votes in the Electoral College. Our president and Vice President are chosen, not by the total popular vote of the nation, but, in most states, by a winner-take-all bloc of votes cast for the winning candidate from the state. Think about the politics of the above states and it will occur to you that the Republicans likely will benefit from the 2010 census.
For this reason, and many others, advocacy groups of every stripe already are putting out propaganda about bias and under counting in the census. A review of news stories over the past 30 days reveals over 400 claims, even before the census has started, of under counts that will cheat these or those people out of votes or money or both. Keep in mind that about $400 billion of the federal budget is distributed to states, counties, and municipalities based on census data.
Some examples:
College students. Under census rules, people are considered residents of the place where they live and sleep most of the time. Many college students are away from their “homes” for 9 months out of the year and will be on April 1, 2010 which is the official counting day (though the census actually takes months). Since one “head” is worth about $3500 a year in federal benefits, localities are eager to claim college students as “residents.”
The National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials claims Latinos will be under counted by at least a million. The National Coalition of Latino Clergy and Christian Leaders agrees. Others say, that because of the high number of illegal Latinos in the US and their general distrust of government, the Latino under count will run into the millions. For the record, citizenship is NOT a question asked by the census.
The Florida Legislative Black Caucus says blacks will be under counted in that state.
Marc Morial, president of the National Urban League, and the Revs. Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson, claim blacks are always under counted everywhere.
This same bunch also are claiming that prisoners are being counted as residents of the town where the prison is located rather than their “hometowns” thus depriving their home neighborhoods of federal money.
The Arab American Action Network complains that there isn’t a race category for Arabs on the census form. Opponents claim that ‘Arab’ is not a race.
The Korea Central Daily News claims Koreans will be under counted because many of them are in the country illegally and are afraid even to talk to a census taker.
According to Pinoy, Filipinos will be under counted because they fear they will be called for jury duty or other civic responsibilities.
The India Tribune claims Indians will avoid the census and be under counted because many are illegals.
Extra claims teenagers and young adults will be under counted because they are afraid to give any information to the government. (These kids are smarter than I thought).
The Polish Daily News claims Poles will be under counted because many do not read English and will not realize the importance of the census forms when they arrive in the mail.
Utah claims its citizens are under counted because many are Mormons who are out of the country on church missions.
American Indians are complaining that they are under counted for a variety of reasons. I suspect it has something to do with their receiving more federal money per capita than virtually any other identifiable group.
Cities with large homeless populations fear an under count for obvious reasons.
A Pew Research Center report says that as many as 1 in 5 Americans will not respond to the census for a variety of reasons, most having to do with distrust of what the government might do with the data. (Although raw census data are supposed to be kept secret for 72 years, recent abuses of private data by other federal agencies give people no particular reason to trust the Census Bureau).
The list goes on and on. You can bet that the census data will be argued and challenged in court for years to come particularly by the states that are likely to lose representatives and electoral votes: Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Too close to call right now is the possibility that Texas may gain 4 seats, instead of 3, and California may lose a seat instead of remaining even.
Looks like another banner year for lawyers.
(Note: The publications cited above are all US domestic publications, most of which represent ethnic constituencies).
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This entry was posted on Thursday, January 21st, 2010 at 5:32 PM and is filed under Commentary. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.